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The IMF on Growth and Stability in MENA

The MENA region commands abundant human and natural resources, accounts for a large share of world petroleum production and exports, and enjoys on average a reasonable standard of living. Within this general characterization, countries vary substantially in resources, economic and geographical size, population, and standards of living. At the same time, intra-regional interaction is weak, being restricted principally to labor flows, with limited trade in goods and services. MENA covers a surface of over 15 million square kilometers and contains some 6 percent of the world's population, about the same as the population of the European Union (EU). The three smallest countries (Bahrain, Djibouti, and Qatar) each have a population of about half a million inhabitants. By contrast, the two largest countries (Egypt and the Islamic Republic of Iran) comprise about 60 million inhabitants each. Together with Algeria, Morocco, and Sudan, these five most populated countries account for about 70 percent of the region's population. About half the population lives in cities. Most MENA countries are experiencing rapid population growth and have high dependency ratios. The average annual rate of population increase during 1989-94 was about 3 percent, the same as that in sub-Saharan Africa. Underlying the population growth are fertility rates substantially higher than those in other economies with similar real per capita income. Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have registered population growth rates exceeding 3.5 percent in recent years, while Bahrain, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Lebanon, and Tunisia have recorded rates below the 2 percent average of the developing countries. The labor force has grown faster than total population in recent years. As more than 50 percent of some countries' population is under the age of 15, this growth will be relevant for years to come; moreover, female participation rates remain very low. Not surprisingly,employment issues are on the agenda of most countries in the region. Other than in the economies of the Cooperation Council of the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC), the rate of unemployment exceeds those of most other regions in the world. Urban unemployment is estimated at over 30 percent in the Republic of Yemen and over 50 percent in the Gaza Strip. Although countries of the GCC once imported labor, with the rapid population growth and slower economic growth, they now must absorb a growing number of their own nationals into the labor force.